Modi has a lot to learn from Bihar

The grand alliance of parties led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar stormed to power in Bihar dealing a heavy blow to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for whom the election was seen as a test of his popularity and his measure to help the economy.

The alliance of Nitish Kumar, Laloo Yadav and Congress got to the two -thirds majority sending a strong signal to other parties around India, United we stand, divided “He” rules. BJP won a mere 58 seats in the 243-member house. All parties were decimated in Lok Sabha pools by Narendra Modi led BJP, and this time for Assembly elections Laloo Yadav was prompt to gauge the mood of the nation and went all out to form an alliance with arch rival Nitish Kumar with an intention to stop Narendra Modi led BJP to enter Bihar and succeeded in a the mission in an unmatched style.

The results are particularly worrying for Modi, who had mounted a no-holds barred campaign, addressing some 30 odd rallies and promising voters crores of rupees in investment, harbored on creating an impression that Bihar has been witnessing a “jungle raj” under Nitish Kumar.  Narendra Modi presented his party BJP as the only leader that could bolster the economy and development without having delivered much on the ground in the last 17 months, and without presenting any leader as the Chief Ministerial candidate.  Soon the election turned into a personality contest between Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi.

Having lost Delhi to Arvind Kejriwal, voters expected the BJP to be cautious.  As the campaign progressed, the tone of the BJP changed from promising development to personal attacks. Quite similar to what BJP had done to Kejriwal and tasted dust at Delhi. Personal attacks didn’t go down well with Bihar’s voters either.

The overexposure of Prime Minister Narendra Modi also went against the party. It turned out to be a comparison of tried and trusted Nitish Kumar and not so reliable Narendra Modi. Questions were raised on how the state would be managed from Delhi, when BJP failed to portray a chief ministerial candidate. Another issue that turned out to be a game changer was the statement by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat on the need for a review of the policy of reservations. The statement was good to create uncertainty among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and the Dalits. By now, the impression that the BJP has been following the agenda of RSS had set in, and Mohan Bhagwat’s statement appeared to be a dictum that BJP would like to implement. The lower OBCs, who seemed uncertain till first phase of polling went en masse to vote in favor of Grand Alliance as it have had a track record to be the champion for the cause of reservations. The leadership, rank and cadre of the Grand Alliance was active, agile, and above all visible at the rallies, the local leadership of BJP and allied parties was sidelined and only Narendra Modi was showcased making the local leadership unhappy. Nitish –Laloo duo drew blood to their advantage and coined the phrase “Bihari” versus the “bahari (outsiders)”. Soaring prices of pulses had fast taken national stage and voters were in no mood to spare BJP for the same. The beef controversy further consolidated the Muslim vote in favor of the Grand Alliance.

The victory of the Grand Alliance engineered on the coming together of Nitish Kumar and Laloo Yadav is sure to open possibilities of coming together of other non-BJP parties and may compose strong calculations for four states that go to the polls. At the same time the defeat for BJP has opened the gates rather flood gates far too early for finding out what went wrong with party campaign.  First one to hit hard, was BJP’s alliance partner in Bihar Jitan Ram Manjhi who took on Manoj Bhagwat and Amit Shah. “Bhagwat’s statement on review of reservation for Dalits and OBCs harmed the NDA’s prospects as it was made one of the main issues by the Grand Alliance,” Manjhi told media in Patna. He didn’t spare the BJP leader Amit Shah either.  He said Shah’s statement that firecrackers would be burst in Pakistan if the BJP lost the Bihar assembly polls also played a major role in the NDA’s defeat. The sharpest attack came from BJP veterans LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Shanta Kumar and Yashwant Sinha who stand isolated since Narendra Modi took over. In a joint statement the leaders questioned Narendra Modi.  “The results of Bihar election show that no lesson has been learnt from the Delhi fiasco. To say everyone is responsible for defeat in Bihar is to ensure everyone is held responsible,” the statement said. “It shows those who would have appropriated credit are bent on shrugging off responsibility for the disastrous showing in Bihar,” it added. Calling for review, “A principle reason for the latest defeat is the way in party has been emasculated in the last year. A thorough review needed for reasons for defeat,” the statement read.

Bihar results and a virtual revolt by senior leadership has sent message to Narendra Modi. He no longer is the lucky election mascot; and has to change his leadership style. He has to come back to the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha to get the agenda of development moving. Get the bills passed that are stuck and for that he will have to seek co-operation of the opposition and ask the fringe elements to refrain and help ease the communal discourses. Modi will have to understand that the voice of advice are not the voices of dissent rather they are of concern and have party leaders, protestors have to be taken on the board and their experience utilized in much better way.